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2013年7月 9日 (火)

Abenomics and the resurgence of Japan's economy (アベノミクス 日本経済の復活)

★ IISS

(英国国際戦略研究所: The International Institute for Strategic Studies)

http://www.iiss.org/en/events/events/archive/2013-5126/march-ea59/abenomics-and-the-resurgence-of-japans-economy-7e95



今年の3月に竹中平蔵は ムンバイで アベノミクスについて語っていた

Abenomics and the resurgence of Japan's economy
IISS-Oberoi Lecture

Dr Heizō Takenaka,  economic adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Rooftop, Trident Nariman Point, Mumbai
Monday 25 March 2013

Speaking in Mumbai this week, Takenaka outlined three elements or ‘arrows’ of Abenomics. The first is a monetary expansion policy designed to conquer deflation. As part of this, the Bank of Japan has announced a doubling of its inflation target to 2%. The second plank of Abenomics is a flexible fiscal policy, involving an already announced fiscal stimulus in the short-term, followed by a fiscal consolidation in the mid-term. The third element of the policy package is an ambitious growth strategy.

1つ目の矢はデフレと戦うための融資の拡大。2つ目は柔軟な財政指針で、短期的には既に発表された財政刺激策が含まれる。3つ目は意欲的な成長戦略のための政策パッケージ。


But Takenaka admitted, there were two different schools of thought on what Japan’s growth strategy should be. One suggested promoting small government and deregulation so that the private sector had a free hand. The other recommended adopting a state-led industrial strategy. Which path the Abe administration will take was as yet unclear.


So far, the markets had loved the idea of this new three-pronged policy, Takenaka said. The Tokyo stock market had leapt 30% in the past three months, and Abe’s government had a 70% public-approval rating (compared to its predecessor’s 20%).


However, Abe had come in for some criticism from abroad for allowing the Yen to depreciate by about 15% against the US dollar since January. While this depreciation benefitted Japanese exporters, its impact on foreign competitors was negative.


Takenaka also highlighted the political uncertainty in Japan that might derail Abenomics’ success. Jokingly challenging his audience to name the seven prime ministers Japan had had in the past seven years, he also pointed to the forthcoming election in the upper house of parliament this July. Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) lacked a majority in the upper house to match that it held in the latter, Takenaka said. However, it was vital for him to win the July election if he were to establish a lasting cabinet.


竹中は、政治的な不確実性が アベノミクスを脱線させるかも知れないと強調した。

この7年間に 7人の首相がいたと 名前を挙げて冗談も述べた。

安倍晋三が 永続的な内閣を構築するには、7月の選挙に勝つのが必須だ。

*******

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